The pop vate spread means zip to me at the moment-all eyes should be on the EV map

At the moment, Obama has 238 from Strong Dem states so he needs 32

Assuming he wins Virgina's 11EV--he's up by 4-6%) that would mean he has to win 21 EV essentially  within Fla(27),Ohio(20),NC(15),Missouri(11) and/or NDakota(3)---If he doesn't he loses

At the moment, it would appear that Obama is +3 in Ohio, +1 in Fla, +1 in NC, tied in Misssouri and -1 in NDakota.

Assuming he wins Ohio as well as Virgina, he would still have to win 1 of the remaining 4 states all of whom are virtually too close to call

The statistical odds would imply that Obama will do so but I have to tell you that the astro based financial types are calling this week as a Major change in trend--bigger than Oct 10 when the nkt bottomed---inferring that since we are rallying up into this week, the most likely result is back down starting tomorrow.

These same financial astrolgers (not sun sign silliness) are also saying that the astro signature here is for SURPRISE----well there are only 3 surprises that I can think of at present--1)McCain wins a squeeker-see above narrowness of the key states)--or 2)D wins 60 Senate seats (mkt hates one party rule) or 3)Obama wins but McCain is successful in getting SC to issue an injunction due to alledged fraud a la acorn or citizenry

Drudge of course is a hard nosed GOP'er so anything he presents on his website is suspect as in twisted words to convey what he wants to convey

The 2pt spread is referred to by Drudge as a 'shocker'

I'm a strong white msle Obama supporter but I have always thought that there are enough racists around who would likely lie to pollsters that Barack likely needs at least +4 minimum to win the overall popular vote--when some white men get into the booth, some will go mccain instead just for racist reasons--and no one ever wants to openly admit that he is racist-psst it's a secret.

Given that, I must say admit that the Gallup number is quite troubling----EV's alos have a way of shifting and we have never had a black running for president before

comments?

Don't know rep of Mason Dixie but they  have McConnell (R) losing all of his 8pt lead that Electoral Vote had for him near Sept21......Is that a sign of a massive turn towards D across the board?...... D might end up with 60-61 as well as Obama win...we now see why McCain felt he had to throw that hail mary-which likely bombed

Suppose Palin drops out by noon Wed--and suppose McCain nominates either Snowe or KBH and either of them accepts

Putting aside what Palin's withdrawal syas about McCain's judgment etc---might the stature of a Snowe or KBH be a big net Plus for the GOP and override the McCain image? Most folks would be going into that polling booth thinking of Snowe/KBH  anyway since most would suspect that McCain would be a 1 term pres anyway----Suddenly Obama might be behind?

Am inclined to suspect that all is not well between Hillary and Bill and hasn't been for some time-formal separation/divorce might be in the cards?--Bill's exclusion from Hillary's recent photo album of her campaign (which included pics of Chelsea) may well be a key signal that a final de-coupling may now soon be on the way-pure conjecture of course. Maybe they need to have a lot of the campaign debt rolled down as perhaps much of it was financed directly or indirectly by Bill's lecture tour warchest?

At any point, I'm inclined  to doubt that Hillary wants the stifling/do nothing/symbolic job as VP but would be far more receptive to taking over from Condi-constantly on the go,on the world stage,high profile,energized etc--and I suspect that quite apart from now stumping for Obama she may well have told him at their recent meeting that she wants the SS position and Obama may well have indicted that he might be able to do something there as VP running mate would likely be a non-starter anyway.

Other than SS, I doubt Hillary would be interested in any other cabinet position. Sec of Health would likely be seen by her as too small and confining.

From HRC's vantage point, VP would in reality be a very stifling and confining role for her. She is far too good for her talents to be wasted on that. This will not be a Cheney II role for heavens sake.It will be more like Bush 1 was to Reagan

From Obama's standpoint, he would be Very unwise to offer it to her, for several already well documented  reasons, even in the unlikely event that Michelle would buy in to the idea (and Michelle will be  the 'decider'here-partic if HRC is the suggested choice). Quite apart from other reasons, Obama needs to be seen as his own person and not in HRC's daily shadow. In a word-she's too strong.

He will not pick another woman-too risky that HRC's entourage will feel enraged--  he will instead pick a caucasian white man around his own age category...not  a materially older type like Clark. Edwards might have been safe but that's out of the question now.

The SD's have a problem-which they hope goes away by Barack winning the cumulative popular vote, incl Florida as is and Michigan (awarding 100% of Undecided to Obama, even though Edwards was somewhere in there)----I would imagine that many of them are hoping that Barack wins NC today by enough of a spread that (together with Oregon,SD and Montana) he will still be ahead in the 'real' popular vote at the end---If that were to happen, they would mostly side with Obama and tell the world that the pledged delagate lead was adhered to and 'hey ya know what, lets seat both Fla and MI after all so we're all one big happy family'.

At present, before Ind and NC, Barack seems to be ahead in the real popular vote by 116,501 per RCP (who included their estimates of the 4 caucus states in their totals). Barack loses 295,000 in Fla and another 90,000 in MI--so his lead to date is whittled down to 116,501.----LIke it or not, THAT is what the SD's are watching, as they want a "legitimate" winner that will be seen to be "legitimate"

HRC's new found "Big Mo" after axing Penn etc might well upset the applecart and force the SD's to make a Tough Call by early June---IF (maybe a big IF) she can hold Barack's margin in NC to within say 5 and also take IND by say 8---the remaining states in her column (WV,KY and PR) would be favoured to put HRC ahead in the cumulative 'real' PV on June 4 as well as reinforce the "Big Mo"---Those of us who think that it's only a matter of pledged delagates could well be surprised (it has happened several times before). Maybe that's one big reasonn why Barack has very recently 'gone negative'.

After tonght, it is quite possible that Barack's NC margin is virtually completely erased  by HRC's IND +margin--meaning that Barack will have have lost the NC ace card--WV and KY and PR together might amount to a HRC margin of say 450,000 and swamp OBama's margins in Oregon, SD and Montana combined--and keeping HRC with the crucial "Big Mo"

I'm not a Barack fan but I'd have voted for David Palmer on 24 in a heartbeat-that character just oozed leadership and empathy--So, I'm a HRC supporter.

With that out of the way-my sense is that Barack is not being well served by the Al Sharpton type of words "doncha dare vote against our Black candidate or you'll be sorry...we've waited too long and this is our entitlement/right etc"

Frankly, I don't think HRC/Bill etc has ever played the "race card"--I think Bill's words in SC were purposely twisted to make it appear to naive folks that Barack has been wronged/insulted etc and that THEREFORE everyone should vote for Barack...In reality, my sense is that it is Obama's handler's etc who have taticly played the 'race card' continually--to the point that thw white community has long been fearful of calling Barack on anything--lest the black backlash come back to bite them. In effect, from Obama's point of view, it has been a winning strategy so far.

But, just maybe Sharpton etc etc have now let the cat out of the bag in what the real strategy has been all along--Intimidate whitey so that they don't dare crticize Barack on merit.

What Sharpton and types like him are really trying to do is coerce the Super D's--In effect, it's the 'reverse race card' and Axelrod etc etc are evidently gambling that the majority of SuperD's will be cowed by it---IF Barack wins NC by only 5 pts the SuperD's may just start scratching their heads--IF